Zhang Yueyou: China Has Not De-Industrialized Prematurely
Release time: 2021-05-25   Author: Zhang Yueyou

High-income economies and developed countries in the world promote industrial restructuring and upgrading through deindustrialization, which is a natural result of a country's production and supply adapting to changes in market demand after a country becomes stronger and richer. However, when a country's industrial development is still insufficient, the share of manufacturing employment has reached its peak, and the process of industrialization has stagnated or even regressed. This is called "premature de-industrialization". Some scholars believe that "premature de-industrialization" puts low- and middle-income economies in a more unfavorable situation, causing Latin American countries to fall into a "middle-income trap." At present, China is basically achieving industrialization, and successively embarking on a new journey to fully realize industrialization. China is still a developing country. As far as China is concerned, it is better to be wary of premature de-industrialization than to be wary of de-industrialization. So, is China de-industrializing prematurely? This article defines China's "premature deindustrialization" as: before industrialization is completed, or at a moderate level of economic development and a low level of per capita income, the added value of manufacturing and the share of employment continue to decline after peaking. The next step is to identify whether China "de-industrializes prematurely". First, use the double standards of manufacturing employment and output to determine whether and when China will de-industrialize. Second, identify whether China's de-industrialization is “premature”.